The top three moves:

1. The Cowboys moved the farthest, sliding up to 6 from 14.  Claiborne is a great pick in a division with so much receiver talent.  And, a dream come true for the lifelong Cowboy fan.
2. The Patriots sliding up to add strength to their defense (much needed).  Usually trading down to add picks, they went the other way this year with strength at DE in Jones & ILB Hightower (Grab him if you are in an IDP league).
3. Dontari Poe to the Chiefs @ 11.  Romeo Crennel will turn this young and raw talent into the next Vince Wilfork.  Kansas City will be beast real soon.

Three most-surprising moves:

1. Seahawks taking Bruce Irvin @ 15.  I like this player and believe he is going to do great things.  Whats surprising is how early Seattle drafted him.  Not only do the Seahawks have many holes in other positions, but there were a few “higher-rated” linebackers available.  Given this position, I would have drafted DeCastro to add to the stable of young lineman already in Seattle and taken the best available LB in the second (which could have been Irvin).  I expect Seattle to draft Wide Receiver in the second round, given StLouis has 3 of the next 13 picks.
2. Staying with wide receivers, the 49ers reached on AJ Jenkins @ 30.  This draft is stocked with talent at the WR position and the 49ers have added Moss & Manningham through free agency.  I thought San Francisco was going to draft OT Jonathan Martin out of Stanford.  I imagine he will be drafted by NYG with their next pick (unless the Giants look to replace the possible loss of Osi and draft LaVonte David out of Nebraska).
3. Shea McClellin @ 19 to Chicago.  I like the pick, but I was surprised at how early this young man was chosen.  The Bears must see him as a future replacement to Urlacher.  He’s a fast & Strong young man, but will need to open his hips if he plans to be successful in Chicago’s cover 2. 

Now, lets look at how round 1 decisions can help you win your league (#WinUrLeague).

The first playerhopping off the board should be Trent Richardson.  Cleveland faces a tough schedule and a bit of a QB controversy, so I expect McCoy or Weeden to be handing off often.  If you look back at last season, Ogbonnaya (sp?) had a few solid outing in replacement of Hillis and Hardesty.

Number 2 should be Michael Floyd (ND).  He will be, without question, going up against the number 2 corner each week.  This gives him the opportunity to take advantage with his height and speed, while Fitzgerald sees heavy coverage.  Regardless of who is quarterbacking the Cardinals, Floyd should have a successful rookie campaign.

The 3rd draftable rookie is Justin Blackmon with Jacksonville.  Not quite sure how good Gabbert will be in his sophomore (slump) season, but Blackmon is a talent and should be added to your fantasy team over Kendall Wright. 

4th: If Kenny Britt comes back healthy and ready, Wright’s production should increase exponentially.  Whether Locker or Hasselbeck get the keys to this talent-laden offense remains to be seen.  Either way, Tennessee should be focused on re-establishing Chris Johnson in the offense.  With Jacksonville & Indianapolis being “down”, Tennessee can battle for the wildcard in the AFC, assuming Houston stays healthy and wins the division. 

Thats all for now, people.  Check me out daily for more in fo on the upcoming NFL season.  And, you can always check in @ winningfantasyfootball@gmail.com or follow me on Twitter #WinUrLeague

I have spent the last two weeks listening to nearly every sports-radio talking head and prognosticator discussing how poor the New England defense is and how New York is “simply, the better team”.  Have they all forgotten that the Patriots won 13 games and average over 30 points per?  New England’s defense has played much better in the playoffs and has been “good enough” all season.  I don’t expect it to be any different on Sunday.  And, more to that point…has everyone forgotten about Week 12 when the Saints embarrassed New York to the tune of 49 points.  The Patriots passing attack is quite similar to that of New Orleans.  I would not be surprised if this game gets away for either of these teams.

When all is said and done, and the ticket tape falls from the roof of Lucas Oil Stadium, my heart say the Giants are holding the Lombardi trophy…but my head tells me the Patriots.  Both teams are familiar with field turf, so their will be no competitive advantage with the “grass”.  New York played in 3 dome games this year (averaging 30.6 pts), which may help them with the noise of the game.  New England did not play in a single dome all season, but they have played in Lucas Oil in the playoffs before (2006).  This game is going to resemble a different Patriots Superbowl victory.  Superbowl 38 when the Pats defeated the Carolina Panthers.  The first half consisting of defensive battles and a second half of electricity and last-minute drama.  The Patriots won 32-29 back in 2003.  A very similar score to Superbowl 46…Patriots win 30-27 due to a late interception by Eli Manning while driving the Giants down the field.  It pains me to say, but New England gets their revenge…

The line is NE -2.5 and the O/U is 54.  Im taking the Giants +3 and the over.

AND then there were Four!

NYG @ SF 1/22 630pn est:  The Giants stay alive to face the 49ers in San Francisco.  Weather is supposed to be rainy and in the mid 50′s with winds near ten miles per hour.  I have a feeling both of these teams will share similar game plans.  Run the ball, control the clock, and play lights-out defense.  Both the 49ers and Giants scored higher than normal point-totals last week.  This was partly due to the opponent’s quick-striking style of offense, which provides the two teams more opportunities to score.  I predict this game to be a much lower scoring affair than even the regular season match up between these two teams.  The Giants were without a few key defensive players last time they faced SF.  Most notably, Boley at Linebacker.  The Giants were beat for big yards on two similarly designed crossing patterns, the first by Davis and the second by Kendall Hunter, which resulted in the go-ahead TD.  With Boley in the lineup, the Giants will be better against these underneath routes, forcing Alex Smith to go over-the-top or find single-coverage down the sidelines.  This game will go to overtime tied at 23 and the 49ers win on the foot of David Akers.  26-23.  49ers advance to their first Superbowl in 17 years!  So, the pick is SF -2 & the over of 42.

Baltimore @ NE 1/22 3pm est:  After listening to a week of prognostication and bullsh*t I’ve come to a very simple conclusion.  If New England stops Ray Rice and the rushing attack, they win easily.  Baltimore’s defense was helped by TJ Yates 3 interceptions and Jacoby Jones early fumble on the kick return last week.  New England will not be providing Baltimore with such luxuries.  If Baltimore is going to win this game, they need to establish the run early.  This will keep Tom Brady on the sideline, which may be their best defensive game plan.  The Ravens are averaging 23 points per game.  They will need at least 27 if they plan to take another trip to the Superbowl.  Their solid (#2 overall) defense with Ed Reed and Ray Lewis seemingly playing their final two games could be enough.  Of anyone in the league, Ray Lewis can still impose his will on others…imagine his intensity knowing he has only two games left, ever!  On the other side, the Patriots average 32 points per game, but two of their three losses this year were to top-tier teams (@ PIT wk 8 & home versus NYG week 9).  Both PIT & NYG brought defensive intensity, keeping Brady’s numbers and the score within reach.  The Patriots will win this game if they can do the impossible, slow down their own offense.  By creating some rhythm during the first half and limiting Baltimore’s offensive possessions, NE can maintain a small lead.  A small lead that they can eventually expand in the fourth quarter.  Over the last 9 regular-season games, NE started slow, only to blow out teams in the second half (minus the Colts comeback to cover the -20.5).  I see the Patriots with a 20-17 or 24-20 lead going into the fourth quarter that will grow to 30-17 or 34-27, final score.  Even though I can see the total going over 50, I dont see Baltimore scoring enough to push it over.  The WinningFF selection is New England -7 and the under of 50…final score 30-17.

Best of Luck with your Playoff Challenge Fantasy Football leagues and wagers.

WinningFantasyFootball@Gmail.com

Denver @ New England:  Its looking to be close to 20 degrees when these two kick off Saturday night.  This may play into DEN favor given their prevalence toward the run.  Everyone knows NE has a poor pass defense, but they are average (17th) against the run.  They allow only 21 points/game, so this leads one to believe they are giving up yardage all over, but shutting down in the red zone.  NE is averaging 32 points/game which explains their 13-3 record.  I dont see DEN coming close to winning this one, but NE -13.5 is a stretch.  This game may have the look of the NE/IND game from Week 13.  NE held a huge lead until the 4th when Dan Orlovsky lit things up and IND covered the -20.5, 31-24.  So, if you’re a gambler…DEN +13.5 & over 50 

Saturday 4:30p New Orleans @ San Francisco:  This has all the makings of a phenomenal game.  Harbaugh’s defense is going to be so excited, as will the SF fans with their 1st home playoff game since the “Comeback” of 2002.  I turned the game off, only to miss Garcia lead a great 24-point comeback against the Giants.  I don’t see Smith finding himself in that kind of hole, but New Orleans certainly could do it.  And, as if San Francisco needed any more motivation…they are 4-point DOGS!  New Orleans hasnt won a road playoff game in their history and they wont win this week.  I like Drew Brees and the Saints have been fun to watch, but they are paper champs.  Outside of beating DET in week 13, the Saints havent had to beat anyone of quality.  SF will probably leave the sprinklers on all night to “slow” down New Orleans.  Im taking SF +4 & over 47 (but it’ll be close).

On to Sunday

Houston @ Baltimore 1pm:  There isnt a whole lot to say here.  Baltimore is hungry, Ray Lewis wants to retire on top, and Houston is allowing 96 rush yards per game.  Once Ray Rice gets rolling down hill, the passing game will open for Flacco and Baltimore wins @ home.  Houston put on a great performance against CIN last week.  But, lets be honest…they have a rookie QB who will be lucky to still have his head attached when this one’s over.  We have all seen some flaws in Baltimore’s run defense this year (especially @ SD).  With PIT out, Baltimore knows they have the recipe to defeat New England (next week) and get to Indianapolis.  On a side note, I find it Ironic that the Baltimore Ravens could win a Super bowl in Indianapolis, the town that stole them…HOU +9 & the under of 36.

NYGiants @ Green Bay 4:30pm:  Very unfortunate circumstances surround GB this week with the untimely passing of their coach’s son.  Its a terrible thing to lose a child and I couldnt imagine what he and his family are going through.  That being said, I dont think GB needed any added motivation for this game (or season), but now they have it.  The only way the Giants win this game is if they can dominate Up front with only four rushers.  They have had success with it lately, since Osi returned…but that was versus the Jets and an injured Cowboys team.  The Giants have been spread thin at corner and safety all season.  Teams have shown that pressuring GB’s wideouts at the line can disrupt the rhythm, but NYG may not have the depth to do so throughout all four quarters.  GB -7.5 & the under 53.

Best of Luck with all of your picks and Fantasy playoff leagues

WinningFantasyFootball@Gmail.com

This weekend’s match-ups look good.

Saturday 4:30 est

GAME 1. CIN @ HOU is a replay of a week 14 (HOU’s last regular-season win).  TJ Yates found Owen Daniels for 100 receiving yards, while the CIN defense had done a great job shutting down HOU’s running attack.  Yates drove HOU to the winning TD…Final 20-19 in Cincinnati.  I dont see this game being too different.  I imagine Foster will be a big factor in the offensive attack, especially if Andre Johnson is still limited.  When push comes to shove (and it will) HOU’s homefield advantage and crowd noise will become the determining factor.  HOU wins (finally) 26-24 (so, CIN +4 is the pick).

Saturday 8 est

GAME 2.  Another regular season rematch from week 13 in Detroit @ New Orleans.  NO won 31-17 (covering the 9.5) last time.  Detroit was without Suh who we all know makes a big difference pressuring the QB.  Without Suh, DET was unable to get enough pressure on Brees with their front 4.  This resulted in blitzing schemes, which Drew Brees just begs defensive coordinators to do.  On the other side, Detroit is coming off an offensive explosion against GB.  They will be able to keep some of that momentum rolling early in this game, but in the end, New Orleans has a better defense than GB.  New Orleans, at home, is simply too tough and too hungry (after last year’s 1st round bounce) to lose this game.  New Orleans wins 34-28 (Pick: DET +11).

Sunday 1 est

GAME 3. This game, in my opinion, is a true coin-flip.  ATL @ NYG.  The Giants have had issues in their secondary dating back to the preseason.  ATL’s passing offense has simply blown up over the last half of the season.  Julio Jones, Roddy White, & Tony G may be too much for NYG to handle.  The Giants will need to get pressure without blitzing if they plan on winning this match-up.  If Atlanta is able to establish the run game early, opening up passing lanes up the middle, the Giants could be in a position they are all too familiar with this season…Fourth Quarter Comebacks.  For NYG, Bradshaw & Jacobs need to move the chains and control the clock.  Their best defense will be to keep Matty Ice on the sideline.  NYG -3 looks like a sucker’s bet.  This game is going to resemble the NO @ ATL game from week 10.  A close match, possible overtime, with a field goal separating the winner from loser.  Im picking ATL +3 and the over (47).

Sunday 4:30 est

GAME 4:  Am I going to be the first one who has to say that Denver has an incredibly strong chance to WIN this game?  All week all Ive heard is how much of a “slam-dunk” this is for the Steelers.  As I agree that PIT is the better team, they are without Mendenhall, Pouncey, Clark, and Ben is hobbled.  On the other side, Champ Bailey is going to shut down Mike Wallace and Dawkins should be back to control the secondary.  If you think Redman can move the ball against Dumervil and Miller, you just may be certifiably nuts.  I have a feeling Tebow, DEN defense, and the Denver faithful are going to make this a difficult game for PIT to win.  If the score is close in the fourth quarter, we could all be witness to “Tebow-Time”…DEN+9 is a lock!

The most successful plan to winning your post-season fantasy league is to draft players you feel will exploit sub-par opponents (like working the waiver wire).  As example, the NYGiants have had issues all season with stopping the pass.  Even though the game is outside, ATL should be throwing the ball early & often.  This makes Julio Jones and Roddy White “smart” options to start in one WR slot.  Even more to the point, Im sure everyone thinks PIT’s defense will dominate DEN.  So, taking advantage of matchups is even more important in the post-season.

Procede with caution when it comes to “garuantees”.  Remember last season when Matt Hasselbeck and SEA beat the Saints.  Hasselbeck was the highest-scoring QB in playoff week 1.  Andy Dalton (in HOU’s dome) could put up huge #’s, so look around and select your team appropriately.

Anyone interested in joining my NFL.com league can email me @ WinningFantasyFootball@Gmail.com.  I’ll forward you the information

Peace

Below are the week 17 WinningFF picks.  Over the 16 weeks, I am 130 – 112 ATS (54%) not including the O/U.  Winners are in BOLD

New Orleans’ offense is firing on all cylinders right now.  The offensive line is playing well, giving Brees more than enough time to find his open receiver.  They have also built a beast-like running game with Sproles, Thomas, Ivory, & Ingram.  This team is primed & ready for a great playoff run.  A win tonight keeps New Orleans even with SF @ 12-3.  That keeps home field and 1st-round bye alive.  Next to Seattle and, maybe, Kansas City, New Orleans is one of the loudest, toughest places for opposing teams to play.  NO’s home field advantage will aid their playoff run…as Im sure they all remember losing in Seattle round 1 last season.

The only flaw in New Orleans’ game right now is their passing defense.  NO is currently ranked 28th in the league, giving up 256 yds/game (which is, oddly enough, ATL’s per-game average).  This is partly due to the number of games played in domes, both home & away.  If New Orleans can hold onto fumbles (they’ve caused 18, but recovered only 5) their game will reach another level.

The line is currently New Orleans -6.5 with Over of 52 (under 53).  Since it is less than 1 TD, Im laying the 6.5 and taking New Orleans to win 34-23 and the over (total 57).

FYI:  went 10-5 ATS this week…

WinningFantasyFootball@Gmail.com

Tonight’s game in Green Bay should be great.  The Bears can still play defense, albeit not like in year’s past.  And, Romeo and he Chiefs laid out a little “blueprint” as to how to defeat the Packers.  Remember Superbowl 25?  Giants beat the Bills 20-19 in Tampa.  The Bills were the highest-scoring offense in the league.  The Giants came out, ran the ball, controlled the clock (for more than 40 minutes), kept Jim Kelly and the Bills O on the sideline.  When the Bills offense was on the field, the Giants hit them harder than they’d ever been hit.  I recall Andre Reed acquired himself a nice pair of alligator arms anytime the ball came his way.  Unfortunately, the League doesnt allow defenders to play that way any longer.  So, the Bears will need to ride Marion Barber (if he’s able) all day long.  The formula to victory here is quite opposite to what Mike Martz runs as OC, so I dont see the Bears pulling out the win.  Let’s just hope their prideful veteran defense can keep it close.

Green Bay -12 and the O/U is 43.

With Josh McCown under center, I dont see CHI scoring more than 17 points (and that may be too generous).  GB, on the other hand, can put up 34 points, easily.  So, 34-17 Final score…so GB -12 & the Over.

Have a very Merry Christmas and enjoy the game.

WinningFantasyFootball@Gmail.com

Only four favorites this week.  Baltimore, after last week’s mistake in SD, need a high-scoring, blowout win over CLE to get the momentum rolling for the playoffs.  The only other possible blowout on hand would be WAS over MIN.  Im not totally buying in to it, but I can see WAS running all over MIN, while WAS run defense shuts down AP.  This causes Ponder to throw it around too much, probably 2 or 3 times to the ‘Skins.

Otherwise, there are too many teams fighting for playoff spots.  I dont see too many blow outs.  Im going to put PIT on “upset-alert” this week.  StL is @ home, playing hard & wanting to finish strong.  SF laid a blueprint for teams as to how to beat PIT with Big Ben and Pouncey hurt.  Charlie Batch gets the start & he didnt look too good against CLE.  Spagnuolo will have something cooked up to rattle Batch’s cage and get StL the victory.

Below are the Saturday games with the WinningFF picks (& O/U) in BOLD: